Mike Robinson, Ph.D., knows how to make an exit.
Or, more precisely, how long it takes to make an exit.
Robinson, a research professor at Old ֱ University’s Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC), develops models for emergencies that trigger evacuations, such as weather disasters and terrorist attacks.
“I wouldn’t say I’m always scanning for an exit,” he said, “but I look to see, ‘Could people get out of here?’”
After the Camp Fire, which killed 85 people in California in 2018, Robinson joined a team of evacuation experts to assess wildfire evacuation plans in the state for Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
“So many of these communities did not have what we would believe to be acceptable evacuation plans,” said Robinson, who is also VMASC’s chief operations officer. So he and the modeling team at VMASC created a tool for these vulnerable areas.
The Fast Local Emergency Evacuation Times (FLEET) model uses U.S. Census Bureau data and road networks. On a page that looks like Google Maps, users select the area they want to leave, and within minutes, FLEET delivers an estimated evacuation time.
“FLEET filled a void,” Robinson said, “and I’m happy to say that people are using it.” The program, free and available since August 2021, has already been used in 27 states.
Last year, Colorado Springs studied FLEET data showing that one area of the city could take five hours to evacuate during the tourist season.
“Mike’s expertise in evacuation modeling has been critical to educating our community and leadership,” said Dana Duggan, board member for Westside Watch, a coalition of neighborhoods in Colorado Springs. “We may not be able to stop the fires, but we sure can use cutting-edge tools like FLEET to ensure that people get out in advance of these fires.”
Robinson’s goal: “People will wake up and say, ‘We need to plan for this.’”
Jonah Grinkewitz ’17 is the assistant director of news and media relations at Old ֱ University.